Some have speculated about a nightmare scenario where the Ebola virus
mutates and becomes airborne like the flu. However, experts say this is extremely improbable, but warn the more
likely nightmare would be for Ebola to become endemic in Africa, with frequent
recurring incidents which lead to the spread of contamination into other
continents.
More uncontrolled incidents in third world countries could lead to millions of deaths. This means the reaction to the ongoing epidemic in West Africa has to be improved. Tougher measures must be taken urgently. The refusal by some countries to send help should be condemned by all.
Real corpses in body bags
The Telegraph reports:
“There is a ‘nightmare’ chance that the Ebola virus could become
airborne if the epidemic is not brought under control fast enough, the chief of
the UN’s Ebola mission has warned.
Anthony Banbury, the Secretary General’s Special Representative, said
that aid workers are racing against time to bring the epidemic under control,
in case the Ebola virus mutates and becomes even harder to deal with.
“The longer it moves around in human hosts in the virulent melting pot
that is West Africa, the more chances increase that it could mutate,” he told
the Telegraph. “It is a nightmare scenario [that it could become airborne], and
unlikely, but it can’t be ruled out.”
He admitted that the international community had been “a bit late” to
respond to the epidemic, but that it was “not too late” and that aid workers
needed to “hit [Ebola] hard” to rein in the deadly disease.
The number of people infected with Ebola is doubling every 20 to 30
days, and the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention has forecast that
there could be as many as 1.4m cases of Ebola by January, in the worst case
scenario.
Professor David Heymann CBE, chairman of Public Health England and
professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene
and Tropical Medicine, said no virus transmitted by bodily fluids - as Ebola is
- had ever mutated to airborne transmission.
"There has never been a virus transmitted in this manner that
converts to a respiratory virus, and there is no evidence that this has ever
occurred in the epidemiology," he said at a discussion programme on the
virus in London on Wednesday night. He mentioned HIV and Hepatitis B as example
of viruses transmitted by bodily fluids that had "never converted to a
respiratory virus".
Dr Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Trust, added that a sense of
proportion should be kept when discussing Ebola.
“The chances of Ebola becoming airborne are extremely small. I am not
aware of any viral infection changing its mode of transmission. It’s important
we retain a sense of proportion and not exaggerate the risks for it changing
and becoming airborne," he told the Telegraph. "There is already
enough fear and panic surrounding this epidemic.
"Of more concern is that the
virus could become endemic in Western Africa, so unlike big outbreaks like
this we could have smaller numbers of cases but circulating continuously. This
is where we need to focus our efforts and attention – on trying to stop this
outbreak before it establishes itself in Western African countries.”
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