"We may be entering a new phase of
the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. There is growing - but certainly
guarded - talk within the World Health Organization that the overall number of
new cases is levelling off.
Officials have told me they now
expect the figure to stick at around 1,000 fresh cases each week. It is in
sharp contrast to the early phase of the outbreak when the number was doubling
every three to four weeks.
BBC map of the Ebola epidemic distribution in West
Back in September, a major report by
a team at the WHO and Imperial College London was estimating 20,000 cases by
today (November 2). Instead the number of confirmed, probable and suspected
cases stands at 13,567.Those early predictions, based on
mathematical modelling, were hugely important for making the world pay
attention to the severity of the outbreak."
This hints at an unscientific use of mathematical modeling to enfasize the severity of the outbreak.
References
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29847058
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033
